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June 30.2025
2 Minutes Read

Why M-PESA's Market Share Drop Signals New Opportunities in Mobile Money

Smartphone displaying payment app outdoors, highlighting M-PESA market share decline.

The Decline of M-PESA: A Shift in Kenya's Mobile Money Landscape

In a remarkable turn of events, Safaricom's M-PESA has seen its market share decline for six consecutive quarters, dropping from an impressive 97% in Q4 2023 to a mere 90.8% in Q1 2025. This trend underscores the rapidly changing dynamics in Kenya's mobile money sector, where growing competitors like Airtel Money are making significant inroads.

Understanding the Market Shift

The latest data from the Communications Authority of Kenya reveals that Airtel Money's market share has risen to 9.1%, up from 8.9% in the previous quarter and a staggering increase from just 2.9% two years prior. This explosive growth can be attributed to various strategic advantages. For instance, Airtel's fee refunds, lower transaction costs, and partnerships with supermarket chains like Naivas have enhanced their accessibility, drawing more users away from M-PESA.

The Innovation Behind Airtel's Growth

A key element of Airtel Money's success is its competitive pricing. To illustrate, sending KES 1,000 ($7.7) via Airtel costs KES 11 ($0.085), whereas M-PESA charges KES 13 ($0.1) for the same transaction. Such price differences are significant for consumers, especially in a price-sensitive market.

Interoperability: A Game-Changer

The introduction of mobile money interoperability in Kenya back in 2022 has been another critical factor in M-PESA's decline. This development allowed users to transact across different networks, diminishing the customer loyalty that Safaricom had historically enjoyed. Now, customers can easily switch between platforms like M-PESA and Airtel Money, making competition fiercer than ever.

The Role of Agent Accessibility

The number of mobile money agents also plays a crucial role. Recent data indicates that the total number of registered mobile money agents surged by 5.5% to 417,000. M-PESA still leads with over 299,000 outlets, but Airtel's focused strategy has started to pay off, giving them a significant presence in the industry.

Future Prospects for M-PESA and Airtel Money

Despite losing ground, M-PESA continues to handle over 30 billion transactions annually, amounting to over KES 38.29 trillion ($296 billion). It still serves more than 34 million users. However, the momentum appears to be shifting as both the Central Bank of Kenya and the introduction of new payment infrastructures like the Fast Payment System (FPS) may further level the playing field. These developments could empower consumers with even more choices and possibly lead to new players entering the mobile money space.

Looking Ahead: Trends Worth Watching

Moving forward, the competitive landscape is likely to intensify as both M-PESA and Airtel Money continue to innovate and adapt to consumer needs. Future implementations, such as agent-level interoperability, would allow users to access services at regardless of provider, making switching providers a much easier decision. This evolution highlights the importance for both Safaricom and Airtel to stay ahead of trends and consumer preferences.

A Call to Engage in Mobile Money

As Kenya continues to innovate within its mobile money sector, consumers stand to benefit significantly from increased competition, better services, and lower costs. It is an exciting time to engage with the evolving landscape of mobile money in Kenya.

Innovation

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08.30.2025

How a Bike Accident Sparked Oluwaleke Fakorede's Journey To Success

Update The Accident That Changed Everything Oluwaleke Fakorede's life took a dramatic turn on a seemingly ordinary July weekend in 2022. Riding his cherished superbike after visiting friends in Osogbo, Nigeria, he experienced a crash that not only caused physical injuries but also shattered his perception of safety in his home country. As he zoomed down the highway, a car suddenly swerved in front of him, leading to a frightening fall that left him bruised and disillusioned. “I saw my life flash before my eyes,” he recalls. Thankfully, he was protected by his gear, but the emotional scars from the accident would last far longer than his physical injuries. Instead of receiving help, Fakorede faced hostility from officers who were supposed to serve and protect. A police officer had been the one who collided with him, yet the blame was shifted onto him. This shocking experience became a catalyst that pushed him to reconsider his future in Nigeria. Rising From Adversity The aftermath of the crash forced Fakorede to confront the realities of his environment. Rather than succumbing to despair, he channeled his energy into a drive for change. Weeks spent recovering from his injuries not only healed him physically but ignited a longing to seek opportunities abroad, where the notion of “freedom of movement” resonated with the idea of safety. This desire transformed into ambition as he founded Proton Tech Lab and took on the role of Chief Technology Officer at GoWagr, a Nigerian startup that taps into the predictive market. Fakorede exemplified resilience, emerging from a tumultuous experience to redefine his career path. Without his accident, he comments, he might never have explored the potential of relocating to enhance his professional life and personal well-being. The Journey to GoWagr GoWagr was born out of a collaborative effort among friends, fueled by the excitement of the 2023 Nigerian elections. Utilizing technology as a platform for engagement, they offered over 400,000 users the chance to predict real-life outcomes and win prizes, allowing participants to capitalize on their foresight in a safe and rewarding environment. This innovative startup was grounded in practicality; the founding team validated their concept through simple spreadsheets tracking predictions. This early success marked their transition from manual tracking to a competitive digital space. It also epitomized a wider trend in the shift toward tech-driven solutions in Nigeria’s marketplace where entrepreneurial spirit meets vital opportunities. From Local Struggles to Global Experience Before GoWagr, Fakorede honed his skills across various national and international organizations, including the iconic Andela. His work at Terragon, Sports Compass in Denmark, and even remote positions with US-based companies illustrated his adaptability and dedication to harnessing technology for broader applications. While working remotely for Insomnia Labs, he gained critical insights into international business cultures, which became invaluable as he sought to scale his projects back home. His growing expertise exemplifies how Nigerian tech innovators are prepared to bridge local challenges with global opportunities, fostering a vibrant ecosystem of opportunities. Shared Stories of Resilience Fakorede’s story resonates with many who have faced challenges but choose resilience in adversity. Stories like his are not uncommon in Nigeria, where numerous young professionals are striving to carve out paths despite systemic issues. His experience reflects a broader narrative of aspiration amid setbacks, and it inspires others to continue pushing for change. A Future Beyond Borders As Fakorede navigates the tech landscape, his vision for a safer, more liberated professional journey continues to unfold. His experience can serve as inspiration for countless others who find themselves at a crossroads, uncertain about their next steps but driven by the desire for progress. For Fakorede, the bike accident was not just an end, but a beginning more powerful than he could have anticipated. In creating pathways for innovation, he embodies the spirit of Nigeria’s youth seeking opportunities and changing the narrative of their nation.

08.30.2025

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Trump's Controversial AI Plan for Medicare: Will It Help or Harm Coverage?

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